fooled by complexity
I'm a big fan of the book fooled by randomness and it's thesis that what people may attribute to personal qualities may in reality be the product of randomness (I admit, I haven't read the book in a while).
This idea is freeing in that I shouldn't take personally, my "failures" in life. And humbling that I shouldn't take credit for my fortunes. For example, Warren Buffett says that he was really born in lucky circumstances that set the foundation for his "success."
However, there is the possibility of internalizing the thesis as a sort of learned helplessness against the odds of life. If life is random, why try anyways?
Well, I'd like to take this idea a step further and posit that it is not randomness but complexity and degrees of complexity that not only fool people, but provide a path to change.
Reality is almost infinitely complex, but at the same time it can be broken down by degrees. For example, the weather in a month from now may be impossible to predict with much accuracy, though the weather in a few hours from now can be predicted fairly accurately.
With time comes great complexity. Complexity seems to grow exponentially with time.
Complexity also seems to increase with specificity. For example, will the weather be warm or cold next week is a much less complex calculation than what will the temperature be next week.
Complexity = Time X Specificity
So, in life. Certain things might be predictable more or less based on your understanding of the factors in play. For example, will your art be a success; well, the factors involved include what is your network, how marketable are you, how are you marketing your work, what is the social climate, what is the political climate, what political and social views do your express, who are all the people interested in your art and what is going on in their lives right now that might allow them to be receptive to your art, what are the aesthetic trends, etc, etc.
If you could somehow calculate all the factors (all the complexity) involved in the success of your art, you could determine whether your art would be "successful" and perhaps even determine what to make to have successful art. You could also simplify the process by working with a well known gallerist who could help direct your production, since they have a direct access and can exert influence over the market (like Warhol did). In a way, leveraging the knowledge / resources of the gallerist in order to reduce the specificity and hence the complexity.
Another example, is what should I do with my life. If you consider all the infinite possibilities, it can become a pretty complex idea. However, reduce the time to say the next hour, well there's only so much you can do in an hour. In the next ten years, well there's a lot there.
Same with specificity. In the next hour, do I want to live or die? Not too complex versus in the next hour what in the infinite possibilities of the universe do I want to do. Here, I think scope comes into play. What is the scope of the idea you're studying?
Complexity = Time X Specificity X Scope
In the next hour, do I want to read or write?
read, so do I want to read a book or comic?
book, so fiction or nonfiction?
nonfiction, so what topic?
As the scope gets narrower, complexity decreases.
Similarly, specificity is kept at a minimum by focusing on a binary choice.
This is manageable.
///
The fundamental core principle is that life is not random, but that randomness is how complexity sometimes manifests itself. It's just that the complexity of reality can be so overwhelming and dense and well, complex, it is beyond our capacity to grasp, but if you could understand all the factors involved in reality down to the subatomic level one could predict reality. But that is an impossible task.
However, complexity can be reduced. There's always some "randomness" which in my paradigm might be called, "unknowableness" (due to our inability to grasp the entirety of reality). It's not random, it's just so complex we can't measure it (yet). So probabilities come into play and you try to estimate your "chances."
unpredictability of idea = complexity X unknownness
complexity of 1 = entirety of reality
complexity < 1 = narrower time, specificity, scope
unknown of 1 = no knowledge (total randomness)
unknownness < 1 = more knowledge (less randomness)
unpredictability of 1 = totally unpredictable outcome
unpredictability < 1 = higher probability of predictability
as you increase complexity or you increase unknownness you increase unpredictability.
Inversely, as you decrease complexity and decrease unknownness, you decrease unpredictability.
Using inverted terminology, if you increase simplicity and increase knowledge, you can increase probability.
Simplicity = 1 / Complexity
Inverse of Time is Immediacy
Inverse of Specificity is Generalness
Inverse of Scope is Narrowness
Simplicity = Immediacy X Generalness X Narrowness
This idea is freeing in that I shouldn't take personally, my "failures" in life. And humbling that I shouldn't take credit for my fortunes. For example, Warren Buffett says that he was really born in lucky circumstances that set the foundation for his "success."
However, there is the possibility of internalizing the thesis as a sort of learned helplessness against the odds of life. If life is random, why try anyways?
Well, I'd like to take this idea a step further and posit that it is not randomness but complexity and degrees of complexity that not only fool people, but provide a path to change.
Reality is almost infinitely complex, but at the same time it can be broken down by degrees. For example, the weather in a month from now may be impossible to predict with much accuracy, though the weather in a few hours from now can be predicted fairly accurately.
With time comes great complexity. Complexity seems to grow exponentially with time.
Complexity also seems to increase with specificity. For example, will the weather be warm or cold next week is a much less complex calculation than what will the temperature be next week.
Complexity = Time X Specificity
So, in life. Certain things might be predictable more or less based on your understanding of the factors in play. For example, will your art be a success; well, the factors involved include what is your network, how marketable are you, how are you marketing your work, what is the social climate, what is the political climate, what political and social views do your express, who are all the people interested in your art and what is going on in their lives right now that might allow them to be receptive to your art, what are the aesthetic trends, etc, etc.
If you could somehow calculate all the factors (all the complexity) involved in the success of your art, you could determine whether your art would be "successful" and perhaps even determine what to make to have successful art. You could also simplify the process by working with a well known gallerist who could help direct your production, since they have a direct access and can exert influence over the market (like Warhol did). In a way, leveraging the knowledge / resources of the gallerist in order to reduce the specificity and hence the complexity.
Another example, is what should I do with my life. If you consider all the infinite possibilities, it can become a pretty complex idea. However, reduce the time to say the next hour, well there's only so much you can do in an hour. In the next ten years, well there's a lot there.
Same with specificity. In the next hour, do I want to live or die? Not too complex versus in the next hour what in the infinite possibilities of the universe do I want to do. Here, I think scope comes into play. What is the scope of the idea you're studying?
Complexity = Time X Specificity X Scope
In the next hour, do I want to read or write?
read, so do I want to read a book or comic?
book, so fiction or nonfiction?
nonfiction, so what topic?
As the scope gets narrower, complexity decreases.
Similarly, specificity is kept at a minimum by focusing on a binary choice.
This is manageable.
///
The fundamental core principle is that life is not random, but that randomness is how complexity sometimes manifests itself. It's just that the complexity of reality can be so overwhelming and dense and well, complex, it is beyond our capacity to grasp, but if you could understand all the factors involved in reality down to the subatomic level one could predict reality. But that is an impossible task.
However, complexity can be reduced. There's always some "randomness" which in my paradigm might be called, "unknowableness" (due to our inability to grasp the entirety of reality). It's not random, it's just so complex we can't measure it (yet). So probabilities come into play and you try to estimate your "chances."
unpredictability of idea = complexity X unknownness
complexity of 1 = entirety of reality
complexity < 1 = narrower time, specificity, scope
unknown of 1 = no knowledge (total randomness)
unknownness < 1 = more knowledge (less randomness)
unpredictability of 1 = totally unpredictable outcome
unpredictability < 1 = higher probability of predictability
as you increase complexity or you increase unknownness you increase unpredictability.
Inversely, as you decrease complexity and decrease unknownness, you decrease unpredictability.
Using inverted terminology, if you increase simplicity and increase knowledge, you can increase probability.
Simplicity = 1 / Complexity
Inverse of Time is Immediacy
Inverse of Specificity is Generalness
Inverse of Scope is Narrowness
Simplicity = Immediacy X Generalness X Narrowness
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